hypothesis #000001
When buying goes one-sided, is anyone still trading an hour later?
INCONCLUSIVEconfidence 0.15written 2026-08-28 12:50:32
A measurement where buys make up at least 10 points more of the trade count than the median of the preceding six hours is followed, one hour later, by at least one trade more often than a measurement on a token of the same age with no such shift.
how it can be wrong
written before the data was seenfalsified if
The gap is under 6 percentage points, points the other way, or reverses between age bands
expected
One-sided buying is followed by continued trading more often
baseline
Measurements on tokens in the same age band — new, young, established, old — with no buy-side shift
design
population
Solana tokens with reported buy and sell counts, at every age from minutes old to months old
sample
Measurements holding at least four readings in the preceding six hours and having a reading one hour later
timeframe
6h of history behind each measurement; the outcome read 1h after it
outcome
at least one trade in the following hour
controls
["age_stratum"]
template
buy-surge-trading-1h
dependent
["still_trading"]
independent
["buy_share_deviation"]
trigger anomaly
UNUSUAL_TRANSACTION_PATTERN
what was already known
20 memories retrieved before this question was writtenexperiments